When it comes to numbers, the state’s proposal to add 310,000 electric heat pumps to our already fragile grid doesn’t add up. In fact, doing so could put Connecticut residents at risk for rolling brownouts and blackouts if such an ambitious task were to happen without understanding the liability behind it.

I am here to sound the alarm that such a plan would have far reaching implications if HB 5004, An Act Concerning the Implementation of Certain Climate Change Measures, goes into effect without doing the math first.

So, we’ll do the math for you.

Adding 310,000 electric heat pumps to the grid would be the equivalent of powering an additional 44 small towns in Connecticut, based on statistics used by the National Grid. That’s a lot of power, and as things stand now, we don’t have it.

In order to be successful, the grid would need a massive, multi-billion-dollar upgrade. But there’s no real plan in place on how to do this, and who would pay for it. All it takes now is a three-day heat wave to push us over the edge or a cold snap. Imagine having to come up with the extra energy to power 44 small towns on a 100-degree summer day or 10-degree winter day?

You don’t need a creative writing degree to tell that story.

Contrary to what some might think, CEMA’s members install more electric heat pumps than any other organization in Connecticut. Not only do our members install electric heat pumps but ENTECH, our non-profit trade school in Cromwell, also teaches future HVAC technicians how to install them. We’ve been doing this since the technology was first introduced to the market, and long before they became the political darlings that they are today. We have extensive experience with them and understand the proper deployment in our customers’ homes. They don’t work for everyone. In fact, a lot of factors need to be considered before installing one into your home.

So, the goal of converting 310,000 homes to electric heat pumps from traditional heating sources like natural gas and home heating fuel/Bioheat® fuel seems far-fetched but does ring a familiar bell for those of us in the energy industry.

Eleven years ago, the Connecticut General Assembly passed a law calling to convert 300,000 homes to natural gas, which was the energy darling at that time. The state was wrong when it subsidized natural gas conversions and ratepayers are still paying for it with higher utility bills.

In 2022, Connecticut regulators ended the program after it failed to perform and only reached about 32% of its goal. At the same time, the average cost for new services for natural gas tripled for Eversource, and doubled for Connecticut Natural Gas and Southern Connecticut Natural Gas, according to PURA.

We believe history is bound to repeat itself with HB 5004. Don’t be tempted to chase the energy fad of the day because history proves that it is not in the best interests of the environment, consumers, and businesses.

This latest attempt to change the way Connecticut residents heat their homes comes with no real path forward on how to power all these additional electric heat pumps as previously stated. Regulators have said they “hoped” more zero-emissions sources of energy would be up and running by then to help power the grid. Those zero-emissions sources include windmills, solar panels and more nuclear.

However, simply hoping things works out is hardly a plan. I hope to one day win the lottery, but that doesn’t mean it will happen. Hope can be a powerful thing except when it comes to powering our maxed-out electric grid.

At the end of the day, that misplaced hope could leave people in the dark, unable to heat their homes, power up their EVs, power up their computers in their home offices, impacting their lives and livelihoods.

Hope would fade as quickly as the light from a firefly trapped in a mason jar with the lid securely closed.

A hefty price tag

The cost of this plan would come with a multi-faceted price tag. Not only would utility bills most likely rise again to pay for this project, installing an electric heat pump is not cheap. Whole home electric heat pump conversions cost anywhere from $20,000 to $40,000. Even with a 50% rebate, the cost of these systems makes them typically more expensive than traditional heating systems which use biodiesel and renewable propane without any additional costs.

And for what?

Most of the electricity used in Connecticut comes from natural gas, which the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) states is 28 times more potent at trapping heat in the atmosphere than carbon dioxide. The Sierra Club puts that risk even higher, claiming natural gas is 86 times more potent than carbon dioxide. This proves that the electric grid is not a zero-emissions source of energy, and therefore, electric heat pumps are not a zero-emissions technology.

There are other ways to battle greenhouse gas emissions. Biodiesel is renewable fuel that can achieve net zero emission without any modifications to existing liquid fuel heating systems. It’s made right here in the U.S.A. In fact, one of the largest manufacturers on the East Coast is based in New Haven. Our members currently sell biodiesel mixed with our ultra-low sulfur heating fuel.

We have practically removed all of the sulfur from our product, and by 2035, our heating fuel will be a 50/50 biodiesel blend. This year, we worked with a retired University of Connecticut professor to test a 90% biodiesel fuel blend in his home during this winter, and with the use of solar panels, we hope to one day soon reach a net-zero carbon home.

Our industry is here to be a part of the solution, and we ask that the bill include our hard-working members who employ more than 13,000 people in our state. Using biodiesel will take the demand off the overtaxed grid while working to insure the same goal of lowering emissions.

Conservation — not conversion — is the only proven method to lower emissions and costs.

Chris Herb is President and CEO of Connecticut Energy Marketers Association (CEMA) and President of ENTECH, the largest nonprofit trade school in Connecticut for energy technicians.