# Statistics

### Prior distributions and the Australia principle - Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science

There’s an idea in philosophy called the Australia principle—I don’t know the original of this theory but here’s an example that turned up in a …

Data Science### MIT Statistics and Data Science MicroMasters

MIT has recently launched <b>Statistics and Data Science MicroMasters</b> program. The program is a series of online MIT graduate courses offered via EdX. It …

Data Science### Regularized Prediction and Poststratification (the generalization of Mister P) - Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science

This came up in comments recently so I thought I’d clarify the point.<p>Mister P is MRP, multilevel regression and poststratification. The idea goes …

Data Science### New Statistics Show Off-Course Golf Grows Diversity

World Golf Foundation CEO Steve Mona breaks down the good news on recent statistics about off-course participation growing the game.

Golf### Boston Stan meetup 12 June! - Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science

Shane Bussmann writes to announce the next Boston/Camberville Stan users meetup, Tuesday, June 12, 2018, 6:00 PM to 9:00 PM, at Insight Data Science …

Data Science### Remove border from geom_rect using ggplot2

I have this code:Just for you to know my data structure:My problem is that I cannot remove the outlines and borders from the geom_rect objects, …

Data Science### ZenInvestor 12-Month Forecast

12-month forecast for the economy, the stock market, corporate earnings, interest rates, and inflation.<p><b>Chart 1. Real GDP from 1979 to present</b><p>GDP …

Stock Markets### Aki’s favorite scientific books (so far)

A month ago I (Aki) started a series of tweets about “scientific books which have had big influence on me…”. They are partially in time order, but I …

Data Science### Vital statistics

Each week, the Honolulu Star-Advertiser publishes Oahu statistics for marriage licenses and birth certificates filed with the state Department of …

U.S. Dept. of State### Digital Attribution Technologies Can Stall Business Growth

"Data-Driven Thinking" is written by members of the media community and contains fresh ideas on the digital revolution in media. Today’s column is …

Advertising Industry### On Bayes factors for the linear model | Biometrika

We show that the Bayes factor for testing whether a subset of coefficients are zero in the normal linear regression model gives the uniformly most …

Data Science### Slow to update

This post is a placeholder to remind Josh Miller and me to write our paper on slow updating in decision analysis, with the paradigmatic examples …

Data Science### Evaluating Sigmund Freud: Should we compare him to biologists or economists? - Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science

<i>This post is about how we should think about Freud, not about how we should think about biology or economics.</i><p>So. There’s this whole thing about …

Data Science### What’s so naive about naive Bayes’?

Naive artNaive Bayes (NB) is ‘naive’ because it makes the assumption that features of a measurements are independent of each other. This is naive …

Data Science### What would really happen in a Hollywood-style zombie apocalypse?

Brazilian mathematicians have done the numbers and it doesn't look good.

Fear the Walking Dead### A political reporter asks some questions about polling - Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science

John Kruzel from PolitiFact writes in with some questions:<p>Readers have asked us to look into Trump’s claim that his support among African Americans …

Data Science### Gordo: Cardinals keep pitching shuttle in high gear

St. Louis Cardinals pitcher Matt Bowman; statistics<p>St. Louis Cardinals pitcher Brett Cecil; statistics<p>• March 31, placed on 10-day disabled list due …

Disability### Team Statistics and Streaks 2018 College Baseball

Team Streaks and Statistics<p>Records and Statistics include games against <b>Division I</b> opponents only.<br>Streaks include games against <b>all</b> opponents.

Baseball### On the modal logic of Jeffrey conditionalization - Philsci-Archive

Gyenis, Zalán (2018) <i>On the modal logic of Jeffrey conditionalization.</i> [Preprint]<p>Preview<p>Text<br>countjeff00.pdf <br>Download (403kB) | Preview<p>Abstract<p>We …

Philosophy of Science### We Count! The 2020 Census

Like many readers of this blog, I’m a statistician who works with Census Bureau data to answer policy questions. So I’ve been following the …

Data Science### Why is the replication crisis centered on social psychology? - Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science

We had a post on this a couple years ago, but the topic came up again, and here are my latest thoughts.<p>Psychology has several features that …

Psychology### Former Hull councillor jailed for downloading indecent images of children

A former Hull City Councillor has been jailed for downloading indecent images of children.<p>Steven Bayes, has been jailed for 12 months.<p>He was arrested …

Sociology### The rise and fall of Steven Bayes, the would-be MP who ended up being convicted for child abuse images

He once harboured hopes of becoming an MP for Hull.<p>But those dreams, along with his political career, are now in tatters.<p>Until his arrest and …

United Kingdom### Ex Hull councillor jailed for a year for child abuse images

THE former vice-chair of Hull’s City of Culture company was told he is “still in denial” as he was jailed for 12 months for making indecent photos of …

Sociology### Another U.S. government advisor from Columbia University! - Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science

Cool! We’ve had Alexander Hamilton, John Jay, Dwight Eisenhower, Richard Clarida, Jeff Sachs, those guys from the movie Inside Job, and now . . . Dr. …

Data Science### How about zero-excluding priors for hierarchical variance parameters to improve computation for full Bayesian inference? - Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science

So. For awhile now we’ve moved away from the uniform (or, worse, inverse-gamma!) prior distributions for hierarchical variance parameters. We’ve done …

Data Science### Zero-excluding priors are probably a bad idea for hierarchical variance parameters - Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science

(This is Dan, but in quick mode)<p>I was on the subway when I saw Andrew’s last post and it doesn’t strike me as a particularly great idea.<p>So let’s take …

Data Science### HMC Open Source PyMC3 slides

The HMC Revolution is Open Source¶<p>Probabilistic Programming with PyMC3¶<p>Who am I?¶<p>PyMC3 developer • Principal Data Scientist and Director of Monetate …

Data Science### Doomsday! Problems with interpreting a confidence interval when there is no evidence for the assumed sampling model - Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science

Mark Brown pointed me to a credulous news article in the Washington Post, “We have a pretty good idea of when humans will go extinct,” which goes:<p>A …

Data Science