The Clippers are being overlooked by fans and bettors alike.

As of right now, the Mavericks are currently listed as the favorites (-125) to advance versus the Los Angeles Clippers, despite being the fifth seed to the Clippers fourth seed. This is as good a time as ever to remind you that betting lines are not a reflection of who Vegas thinks is the better team. Vegas’s job is to set a line that will result in 50% of bets to come in on both sides so that they can profit off of the vig. All this line tells us is that more money and individual bets are backing the Mavericks and Vegas is trying to entice more people to bet on the Clippers.

At first glance, it makes sense why the general betting public is backing the Mavericks. They ended the season on a hot streak and the Clippers have not looked like the best version of themselves in quite some time. Fans tend to be reactive and have the memory of a goldfish. If you take a step back, however, you will see that the Clippers should still be considered the favorites to win this series.

Assume a healthy Kawhi Leonard

The case against the Clippers is simple, we don’t know what version of Kawhi Leonard will step foot on the court. If his knee and legs continue to betray him, he won’t be able to impact the game on both ends of the court. If that’s the case and Kawhi is a shell of himself, the rest of this article is meaningless and anything other than a series win by the Mavericks would be considered a huge upset.

Let’s assume that Kawhi’s recent absence from the court had more to do with maintenance and preservation than the result of a serious injury. It would make a ton of sense. There are a handful of teams for which the regular season means nothing. The Clippers are one of those teams. This team was built to win championships and to date, they’ve failed to live up to their expectations due to a string of poor play in the bubble and an overall lack of health in the postseason. Their season starts when the postseason does. Until then, head coach Ty Lue’s job is to tinker with lineups, manage the health of his veterans, and get his team to the finish line in one piece. I’m going to give the Clippers the benefit of the doubt and assume Kawhi will be ready to play when the series kicks off on Sunday.

The Clippers were the best team in basketball for a significant stretch of the season

From December 2nd through the first week of February, the Clippers looked like the best team in the league. They went an incredible 24-3 during that stretch, absolutely battering teams. Only 3 of those 24 wins were decided by six points or less. Defensively, they were suffocating teams. Offensively, they were practically unguardable. At this point in his career, James Harden is more of a playmaker than a scorer. During that same stretch, Harden eclipsed 10 or more assists 17 times.

The Clippers discovered their offensive identity and the pieces started to fall into place. Lue had abandoned the idea of starting Westbrook. Moving him to the bench allowed Westbrook to do what he does best. His Tasmanian devil-like energy proved to be too much for opposing benches. He could get up and down the floor and affect the game with effort plays. The closing lineup was highly effective. Harden was able to run pick and rolls and get into the teeth of the defense. If you played drop, he’d kill you with floaters. If the big man stepped up to cut off his drives, he could get the ball to his big man and/or hit his wings who were more than happy to launch wide-open threes. If somehow a team managed to stop that action, they would give the ball to Kawhi Leonard and Paul George who are amongst the best isolation scorers in the league. They were a menace and reminded us of the team we kept waiting to show up the past few seasons.

Again, assuming Kawhi is ready to go, that is the version of the Clippers we should expect to see this series. Not the version of the Clippers that looked like they were going to the motions. Not the version of the Clippers that was giving heavy minutes to the likes of Bones Hyland, Amir Coffey, and Brandon Boston.

It’s understandable if you haven’t seen a Clipper game in some time. Even I, a degenerate gambler with 5 TVs in his gambling cave, have had no reason to watch the Clippers as of late. I was, however, locked into them during that two-month stretch where they were thrashing the league on a nightly basis. I picked them to win the title this year and that stretch of play reminded me why I was so bullish on them entering the season. They are built to beat you in a variety of ways, and it just so happens they have the personnel to expose the Maverick’s biggest weaknesses.

Closing Lineups

For the Clippers, let’s assume they’ll close games with a lineup of James Harden, Norman Powell, Kawhi Leonard, Paul George, and Ivaca Zubac. For the Mavericks, Kidd likely goes with a lineup of Luka Doncic, Kyrie Irving, P.J. Washington, Derrick Jones Jr. and one of Derrick Lively Daniel Gafford. The centers will cancel each other out though Lue or Kidd may choose to deploy their center on someone else for certain possessions. PJ and DJJ will likely defend PG and Kawhi. That leaves Luka and Kyrie to guard Norman Powell and James Harden.

In one word, oof. The Clippers will put both Luka and Kyrie into as many ball actions as humanly possible. First, Los angeles will look to wear them down by forcing them to expend as much energy as possible on the defensive end. Second, neither Luka nor Kyrie are willing and/or able to navigate ball screens all game long. Remember, this is the postseason. At times it can look like a completely different sport. The version of the Mavericks that went to the Western Conference Finals were able to play above-average defense because Luka was worst defender on the court by a considerable margin. They could pre-switch actions and find ways to hide Luka defensively. With Kyrie Irving on the floor, that won’t be possible. The Clippers will have somewhere to attack on every single possession. The Mavericks from two years ago could switch the majority of actions and get away with Luka having to defend in space in short bursts. This iteration of the Mavericks isn’t built to switch on defense.

They try to funnel ball handlers into the lane but the tendency to overhelp has resulted in a ton of wide-open corner threes for the opposition. Well, that might prove to be disastrous against the Clippers. Norman Powell shot 49.6% on Catch and Shoot threes. Even James Harden, who prefers step-backs, shot 38.5% on catch-and-shoots. Outside of Zubac, the Clippers don't have anyone you can simply ignore on the perimeter. Even if the Mavericks manage to rotate on a string, asking PJ Washington and Derrick Jones Jr. to defend Kawhi and PG in isolation is a lot to ask. PJ has been phenomenal, but we are talking about Kawhi Leonard. Heck, Paul George has looked like a top 10 player for much of this season. They are going to get to their spots and all we can do is hope that they miss.

The Dallas role players will need to step up in a big way

Speaking of PJ Washington and Derrick Jones Jr., the Mavericks’ chances could very well depend on the duo’s ability to hit 3-point shots. The Clippers won’t make the mistake that other teams make by trapping Luka when he has the ball in the middle of the floor (though if they do... Luka will have a great time making reads). They’ll pick their spots and double him and help in places where the wide-open man will likely be PJ Washington or Derrick Lively in the opposing corner. Luka is one of the few players that can make that pass and the Clippers will be happy to live or die with them launching 3s at will. If they, and particularly PJ Washington, can make the Clippers pay often enough to make them rethink their strategy, things could get interesting. If they can’t, however, we could see a ton of possessions end in some ugly misses.

Overall, Luka has reached a level where he should be considered the best player on the court entering this series. It’s possible, though, that the Clippers have the second and third-best players due to Kawhi and Paul George’s ability to impact the game on both ends of the court. Kyrie is as good as anyone on the offensive end, but he won’t have anywhere to hide on defense. Luka won’t have anywhere to hide. Ultimately, that could be the difference in this 4 vs 5 matchup where the Clippers have a home-court advantage.