Research Papers

Market Noise Distorts Pure Signals

Serious audiophiles can often detect the slightest electronic hiss or vibrating hum in stereo equipment. This skill enables them to discern how such …

Trading

Why Solid Growth Will Eclipse Geopolitical Concerns

Since late January, markets have been forced to digest fears of tighter monetary policy, a trade war, and a geopolitical shock. All of these risks …

Personal Finance

In D.C., Spring Brings Buds of Concern

The cherry blossoms are past their peak in Washington, DC, and the mild weather has been a nice reassurance that spring has indeed arrived. For many, …

Stock Markets

Apartments Remain Top Choice for Real Estate Investors

Although real estate investment trust (REIT) stocks may have lagged, multifamily remains the best-performing asset class in the private market, where …

Real Estate

Households Would Rather Rent Than Own Homes

The housing recovery since the 2008–2009 recession has been quite strong. After posting years of declines, the national home ownership rate has begun …

Real Estate

It's Earnings Season – and US Companies are Delivering on Profits

You might not know it from looking at the performance of the stock market, but company earnings reports for the first quarter are off to a very solid …

Personal Finance

Real Estate is Cheaper on Wall Street than Main Street

The underwhelming performance of multifamily real estate investment trust (REIT) stocks on Wall Street over the past two years may be masking a solid …

Real Estate

Urbanization Supports Real Estate Rental Market

Given rising supply, slowing rent growth or declining rents, what keeps us constructive on the multifamily real estate market for apartments? …

Real Estate

A Degree of Calm Returns to Markets

Tail risks have been very much in evidence this year, from inflation scares to trade war fears and escalating geopolitical tensions. As a result …

Stock Markets

Dollar Must Keep Depreciating To Balance Payments

Although the US Treasury refrained from naming any major trading partners as currency manipulators, President Donald Trump on April 16 tweeted that …

Stock Markets

Fading Franc Doesn't Make Swiss Stocks a Bargain

The Swiss franc has been one of the biggest losers versus the euro over the past 12 months – down more than 10%. It is now very close to the 1.20 …

Personal Finance

Fed Nominees Tilt Toward Lighter Regulation

On April 16, President Trump announced two more nominations for the Federal Reserve Board of Governors. Neither choice comes as a surprise, since …

Personal Finance

Trade War Will Not Destroy Global Trade System

It is fortunate that we have no recent historical precedent for how financial markets would be impacted by a prolonged period of protectionism. As …

S&P 500

US and Chinese Economies Gain From Cooperation

The economic impact of trade restrictions, both real and perceived, will be critical in determining how recent tensions evolve. After accounting for …

Trading

A Trillion-Dollar Butcher's Bill

Recent legislative wins by the administration have come at a hefty price in terms of the deficit. While the expansion of fiscal policy this late in …

S&P 500

Prudent Borrowing Can Help Cover Retirement Shortfalls

Many planning tools assume that spending in retirement starts at a particular level and increases via inflation on an annual basis. Yet a wide body …

Retirement

Don't Forget About Earnings Season

Politics rather than economic fundamentals have been driving equity markets of late. February's equity correction was prompted by fears of higher …

Personal Finance

Economists Puzzle Over Why Investors Resist Annuities

Stable income strategies can cushion you from market risk and the danger of running out of money. Examples include Social Security, pensions and …

Retirement

Cookie Jar Funds Should Cover a Year of Expenses

Standard advice recommends that emergency funds should be able to cover three to six months of expenditures. However, we believe many families need …

Trading

Why China’s Surprise Deficit Isn’t a Warning Sign on Global Trade

Export powerhouse China has posted a rare trade deficit for March, fueled by a surprise 2.7% year-on-year decline in exports. Within the total, the …

Trading

It Takes Time to Heal From Major Bear Markets

Most investors hate bear markets. However, though they are emotionally difficult for those who are still working, they can be potentially highly …

Personal Finance

We All Have Mental Piggy Banks – Here's How to Manage Them

A rainy day can disrupt investment plans, and sometimes happens at inconvenient times. An important part of meeting goals is making sure assets are …

Personal Finance

Amid China-US Trade War Speculation, Cooler Heads Should Prevail

Trade tensions have escalated over the past few days, but China and the US are not yet in a trade war. Over the past several weeks, there have been …

Stock Markets

How to Follow Warren Buffett's Number One Rule

A strategy for financial survival should be first and foremost in every investor’s mind. Financial ruin can strike in a wide variety of ways: …

Investing

Higher Inflation Supports Steady Fed Rate Hikes

Data released today showed the core Consumer Price Index (CPI), which excludes food and energy, rising 0.2% month-over-month in March. This is in …

Stock Markets

World Powers Play Game Theory on Trade

When US President Donald Trump announced tariffs on imported goods from China, global stocks fell and the price of safe haven government bonds …

Trading

The Eurozone May Be Past its Peak

Eurozone stocks have outperformed their UK counterparts by more than four percentage points this year. However, we no longer see catalysts for …

Stock Markets

Trade War Scenarios Weave Tangled Currency Web

Given the current state of world politics, it is timely to ask how major exchange rates such as euro-US dollar would react to a trade war scenario. …

Personal Finance

Trade Friction Could Continue to Hurt Asian Markets

Rising global trade friction threatens an otherwise positive outlook on Asia-Pacific (APAC) currencies, given the trade-oriented nature of the …

Trading

Why a US-China Trade War is Still Unlikely

The recent tit-for-tat on trade tariffs between the US and China has been one of the catalysts behind the recent spike in market volatility. While …

Personal Finance