Research Papers

China Retaliates Less Than Expected in Tariff War

After another volley of US-China trade tariffs, stocks have gained ground. The Standard & Poor’s 500 index rose 0.5% on 18 September, and the rally …

Business

Italy Fails to Shake Off Its Populist Intrigue

The Italian market has had a rough spring. When it became clear that two populist parties could join forces to form a government, bond yields started …

Business

Fed Faces Moment Of Truth For Its Independence

The concept of independence from political interference is absolutely sacrosanct to every central bank. Monetary policy makers view those within …

Business

US Concerns About China Go Beyond Trade War

The US National Security Strategy released by the Trump administration in December 2017 labels China and Russia as "revisionist powers … determined …

Business

US-China Trade Tensions Expected to Linger Past Mid-Terms

The White House has announced that the United States will impose a 10% tariff on a further USD 200bn of Chinese imports, effective 24 September, with …

Business

Russia Defies Corporate Headwinds

Russian companies reported strong earnings results for the first half of 2018. With the government's introduction of the new budget rule, the ruble …

Business

After the iPhone XS, an iPhone US?

Last week, Apple launched its iPhone XS against a backdrop of uncertainty over its supply chain. Apple has warned that the US proposal to impose …

Business

Game On, Asia

Delayed new game approvals and regulations aimed at addictive behavior have taken a significant toll on China’s video gaming industry this month, …

Business

Here’s Some Financial Advice For Thirty Somethings

The thirties are an important time in anyone's life. The number of changes in this milestone decade increase more rapidly than in the twenties. The …

Personal Finance

The Consequences of Only Investing in the US

It's no secret that the US stock market has had a much smoother and more impressive post-global financial crisis rally than its international peers. …

Personal Finance

China Loosens Policies To Cushion Economic Slowdown

Since July, policy has shifted in China to easing in order to mitigate the trade tensions and economic slowdown. Economic growth is on track to …

Personal Finance

Higher Turkish Interest Rates Give Central Bank Credibility

In its September meeting, the central bank of the Republic of Turkey hiked the policy rate by 6.25 percentage points to 24%, well above median market …

Personal Finance

Fears Of Hurricane Disruptions Boost Oil Prices

A major hurricane barreling down on the US East Coast has helped push crude oil prices for West Texas Intermediate and Brent, the two main …

Oil

Turkey Takes a First Step Toward Stability

Turkey’s central bank has belatedly opted for a more conventional policy response to the depreciation pressure on the lira. The CBRT raised its …

Personal Finance

How Retirees Can Reduce an Important Investment Risk

Sequence risk occurs when a portfolio experiences a large drawdown early in retirement. As a consequence of the drawdown, the reduced portfolio value …

Personal Finance

US Sanctions Weigh On Russian Ruble And Emerging Markets

After the United States imposed additional sanctions against Russia in August, the risk of further measures lingers, especially in the coming weeks. …

Personal Finance

Optimism Over Brexit Raises The Price of Sterling

Greater optimism about reaching a Brexit deal has pushed sterling higher, with the pound gaining 2% against the euro in the last two weeks. The …

Money

Patients And Investors Don’t Always Follow Professional Advice

Psychologists have a term for the behavior of an investor who doesn't follow through with the advice they receive from their advisor: non-adherence. …

Personal Finance

Trade Deficit May Lead Trump to Add Tariffs

Asian shares fell for their eighth straight session on September 3, after US President Donald Trump threatened to impose tariffs on all Chinese …

Personal Finance

Brazil: Electoral and Emerging Market Contagion Risks Joined At The Hip

Brazil's economy is in the midst of a long recovery that started after former President Dilma Rousseff's impeachment in 2016. The recession was …

Bond Market

China Is Not Trying to Weaken Its Currency

We think recent stability in the US dollar-to-yuan exchange rate is unlikely to hold, and we expect the yuan to fall further against the dollar in …

Personal Finance

Lessons from Lehman

Next weekend, we'll reach the 10-year anniversary of the largest bankruptcy in American history: Lehman Brothers. I worked at Lehman Brothers from …

Personal Finance

Too Early to Turn Positive on Emerging Markets

Emerging markets (EM) remain under pressure. The MSCI EM stock market index is back near bear market territory, down 19.8% from its January peak. …

Stock Markets

France Must Grow Its Way Out of Debt

The latest polls show how French President Emmanuel Macron's approval ratings have dived. Yet looking at the economic data for France, we see an …

Money

New Program Tries to Curb Escalating Rents

In response to challenges for renters, the Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation, known as Freddie Mac, introduced its Workforce Housing and …

Fortune 500

Foundations Struggle to Make Ends Meet

The 2017 COF-Commonfund Study of Investment of Endowments for Private and Community Foundations was released in August. Despite achieving the highest …

Personal Finance

Japanese Government May Open Purse Strings To Gain Support

Japan's second-quarter gross domestic product jumped 1.9%, a welcome respite after a weak first quarter. Wages are growing at the fastest pace since …

Personal Finance

After September, the Fed's Path is Less Clear

The US Federal Reserve is almost certain to raise rates by 0.25 percentage points in September. Anything other than a rate rise would be a shock to …

Money

A Narrow Market Requires a Broad Portfolio

If you include Amazon and Netflix, which are technically consumer discretionary stocks, roughly 75% of 2018 equity market performance has been driven …

Personal Finance

Trade Dispute with China Still Looms

This past week, trade negotiators for the United States and Mexico achieved a dramatic breakthrough, producing a preliminary agreement on updating …

Economy