The bugle for Lok Sabha election has been blown with the first phase voting for 102 seats on April 19. While the Bharatiya Janata Party has launched an ambitious target of winning more than 400 seats, opposition hopes to pin down the Modi government riding on unemployment, price rise and poverty.

The seven phase election is spread over 44 days from April 19 to June 1 with results on June 4. BJP faces the challenge of holding onto seats won in 2019 (303) and making gains from east and south, as well as at the expense of non-aligned parties to accomplish its Mission 400.

In terms of phases, three states of Bihar, Uttar Pradesh and West Bengal will go for polling in all the seven phases. Maharashtra will witness a five phase turnout, while Jharkhand, Madhya Pradesh and Odisha a four phase polling.

BJP led NDA’s best phase, basis 2019 performance, is three (where it won 82% of total seats going to polling) and worst is phase seven (52% of seats). For INDIA bloc, the best phase is one (48% of seats) and worst is phase five (just 2% of seats). There is no phase where INDIA bloc was leading as per 2019 numbers, while there was a tie in one phase.

There is no phase where non aligned were leading in 2019. Their best performance was in phase four in 2019, also when Andhra Pradesh and Telangana will be voting.

The non aligned parties, like Trinamool Congress, Biju Janata Dal and Bahujan Samaj Party, are under threat of losing seats as they have the lowest margins of victory at 10% and the lowest vote share at 47%. A 5% swing away from these non-aligned parties towards the runner up in 2019 puts all these 86 seats won by these parties in jeopardy.

On the other hand, BJP recorded a vote share of 54% and Congress 49% on seats won by these parties. In terms of margins, BJP recorded an average margin of 19% and Congress 14%.

NDA is hopeful of making gains in phase four and phase one. Phase one, by making gains in Tamil Nadu, which is ambitious to say the least. In phase four it hopes to make gains in Andhra through alliance with Telugu Desam Party and by making the contest bipolar in Telangana. The party hoped to make significant gains in East, which has Bengal and Odisha, while Bengal is witnessing seven phases, Odisha a four-phase poll.

The Congress party hopes to make gains across phases, making a dent in BJP tally, as BJP has maxed out in northern and western regions. Party is hopeful of making breakthroughs in Karnataka (phase two and three) and Telangana (phase four).

Phase One (102 seats)

The main states where polling will be held are Tamil Nadu (39), Rajasthan (2), Assam (5), MP (6), Uttarakhand (5), UP (8) and West Bengal (3). The NDA and INDIA bloc are tied at 49 seats each in this phase, basis 2019 performance.

Non-aligned parties have only four seats, not much at stake. The INDIA bloc had swept Tamil Nadu (38/39) while NDA Rajasthan, UP, MP, UK and Assam.

On the seats won, NDA had recorded vote share of 55%, while INDIA bloc 52%. They both won their seats by big margins, on an average 19-20%. So for any party to make a dent in other’s tally, a swing of 10% is required (-10% winner, +10% runner up).

While Congress has a stronger alliance in UP compared to 2019, in West Bengal it has received a setback with Mamata Banerjee deciding to go it alone.

In Tamil Nadu, BJP has been running a spirited campaign to breach the fort of Dravidian parties. Party hopes to gain at the expense of AIADMK and make significant inroads, however it faces a steep challenge.

Phase Two (88 seats)

The main states where polling will be held are Maharashtra (8), Rajasthan (13), Assam (5), MP (7), Kerala (20), Karnataka (14), UP (8) and West Bengal (3). The NDA won 62 and INDIA bloc 23 in 2019. The INDIA bloc had swept Kerala (19/20) while NDA Rajasthan, UP and MP.

On the seats won, NDA had recorded vote share of 55% while INDIA bloc 47%. While NDA won by big margins of 20%, INDIA won by margins of 11%.

In Maharashtra the big question is who is the real Shiv Sena or real Nationalist Congress Party? In Kerala the Left parties and Congress who are allies in rest of India are involved in a bitter tussle, as the Communist Party of India (Marxist) led front threatens to make a dent in Congress tally.

In Rajasthan and MP, Congress hopes to make a dent in BJP tally as it has maxed out in these states, while in UP it hopes an alliance with SP will help it stop the BJP juggernaut to some extent. It has high hopes in Karnataka riding on the implementation of its guarantees.

Phase Three (94 seats)

The main states where polling will be held are Gujarat (26), Chhattisgarh (7), MP (8), UP (10), Maharashtra (11), Karnataka (14) and West Bengal (3). The NDA won 78 and INDIA bloc 11 seats in 2019. NDA swept Gujarat and MP while winning maximum seats in Chhattisgarh, UP, Maharashtra and Bengal.

On the seats won, NDA had recorded vote share of 57% while INDIA bloc 47%. While NDA won by big margins of 21%, INDIA won by margins of 9%.

BJP hopes to maintain its dominance in these states, while Congress hopes to make gains in Karnataka, on account of the implementation of its schemes.

Phase Four (96 seats)

The main states where polling will be held are Andhra (25), Telangana (17), MP (8), UP (14), Maharashtra (11), and West Bengal (8). The NDA won 49, INDIA bloc eight seats and non-aligned parties 39 seats. BRS, TMC and Yuvajana Sramika Rythu Congress Party won maximum seats in Andhra, Bengal and Telangana, BJP in UP, MP and Maharashtra.

On the seats won, NDA had recorded vote share of 53%, INDIA bloc 45% and non-aligned parties 48%. While NDA won by big margins of 17%, INDIA won by margins of 8% and non-aligned parties 11%.

BJP hopes to make gains through its alliance partner TDP and Jana Sena in Andhra. It hopes BRS weakens further and it is able to capture the anti-Congress vote from K Chandrashekar Rao’s party.

Phase Five (49 seats)

The main states where polling will be held are Bihar (5), Odisha (5), UP (14), Maharashtra (13), and West Bengal (7). The NDA won 39, INDIA bloc four seats and non-aligned parties six seats.

On the seats won, NDA had recorded vote share of 53%, INDIA bloc 50% and non-aligned parties 49%. While NDA won by big margins of 20%, INDIA won by margins of 17% and non-aligned parties 11%.

BJP hopes to make gains in Odisha and Bengal. In UP it had lost nine seats overall, and hopes the Ram Mandir inauguration and new allies like Rashtriya Lok Dal and Suheldev Bharatiya Samaj Party help it recover the loss of 2019.

Phase Six (57 seats)

The main states where polling will be held are Haryana (10), Bihar (8), Odisha (6), UP (14), West Bengal (8) and Delhi (7). The NDA won 45, INDIA bloc one seat and non-aligned parties 11 seats.

On the seats won, NDA had recorded a vote share of 54%, INDIA bloc 60% and non-aligned parties 49%. While NDA won by big margins of 21%, INDIA won by margins of 25% and non-aligned parties 8%.

Congress hopes to make gains in Haryana riding on the discontent among farmers, farmers’ protest and the breakup of BJP alliance with Jannayak Janta Party. In Bihar the return of Nitish to the NDA fold has minimised the loss for the party.

However, the NDA won 39 out of 40 seats in Bihar in 2019. INDIA bloc, led by young Tejashwi Yadav, hopes to make a big dent showcasing his work on the job creation front when he was Deputy CM under Nitish.

In Delhi, the alliance between Aam Aadmi Party and Congress and Arvind Kejriwal’s arrest have made the contest interesting, where BJP swept 7-0 in 2019. Key is if Kejriwal’s arrest can generate any sympathy for AAP.

Phase Seven (57 seats)

The main states where polling will be held are Punjab (13), UP (13), Bihar (8), Odisha (6) and West Bengal (9). The NDA won 30, INDIA bloc nine seats and non-aligned parties 18 seats.

On the seats won, NDA had recorded vote share of 53%, INDIA bloc 43% and non-aligned parties 49%. While NDA won by big margins of 18%, INDIA won by margins of 9% and non-aligned parties 13%.

In Punjab AAP, which has an alliance with Congress in neighboring Delhi, is giving a tough fight to the grand old party in retaining its eight seats in 2019. A quadrangular contest has made it complex and BJP is also flexing its muscles to increase its tally by wooing the Sikh community.

To sum up, for BJP’s Mission 400 to fructify, it first of all needs to maintain its 303 tally of 2019, and then seek gains on 72 seats where it emerged runner up, 49 of them in UP, Bengal and Odisha. It also needs to explore new avenues in the South.

Amitabh Tiwari is a political commentator, strategist, and consultant advising political parties and leaders. He was previously a corporate and investment banker.

The views expressed here are those of the author, and do not necessarily represent the views of NDTV Profit or its editorial team.

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