BY DAVID THORPE

Led by the bombastic DJ Burns Jr. (left), NC State has charged through two tournaments to reach the Final Four. Is this the end of their fantastic journey? ANDY HANCOCK/NCAA PHOTOS/NCAA PHOTOS VIA GETTY IMAGES

Everyone loves an underdog … well, everyone except the favorite.

Over a third of the first-round matchup in this year’s NCAA tournament resulted in upsets. Lower seeds won five-of-eight Sweet 16 games. Overall, we’ve seen 19 upsets to this point.

This year’s Final Four features a reigning national champion, the country’s most disciplined squad, an offensive juggernaut, and NC State.

The upstart Wolfpack have accounted for three of those 19 upsets with wins over Texas Tech, Marquette, and Duke. (Oakland was a lower seed.) High-scoring Alabama knocked off North Carolina to reach the Elite Eight, where the Crimson Tide defeated lower-seeded Clemson to reach the Final Four.

The tournament's top overall seed, UConn, has run through tourney opponents like a blowtorch through cardboard and is the heads-and-above favorite to repeat. The Purdue Boilermakers, returning to the Final Four for the first time since 1980, was third overall. Neither has disappointed thus far, and each is heavily favored to reach the national championship game.

We’ve already examined the NBA prospects in the Final Four; now we dig into the game dynamics.

On overall talent, UConn reigns supreme, and head coach Dan Hurley has proven he can steer his team to a national title. But Alabama head coach Nate Oats employs college basketball’s closest thing to an NBA offense—a high-octane barrage of 3s, layups, and transition dunks. Up to this point, no UConn opponent has even sniffed a win; Alabama has the best opportunity to change that.

In our other matchup, we have fundamentals versus fun. Purdue plays with a plan and executes it as well as any team in the country. NC State has been riding high off the play of charismatic big man DJ Burns Jr. Will 7-4 Zach Edey be the wall that ends the Wolfpack’s magical season?

Here’s how I see the Final Four playing out:

Alabama’s shot chart versus Clemson in the Elite Eight.

(4) Alabama vs. (1) UConn

During the Elite 8 matchup between UConn and Illinois, Illini head coach Brad Underwood, interviewed during a media timeout, said the game plan was to go at Donovan Clingan 100 times and make him block 100 shots. That wasn’t smart.

If that Bama shot chart gives you Mike D’Antoni vibes, that’s no coincidence. D’Antoni is friend and mentor to Tide assistant and offensive coordinator Ryan Pannone—formerly of the New Orleans Pelicans. Pannone served as my lead assistant for 14 seasons; to be clear, he’s basically my adopted son. The Tide lead the nation in scoring and join UConn and Purdue as the three most efficient offenses in Division-I men’s basketball.

But Alabama will struggle to get all those layups with Clingan patrolling the paint. The key will be driving, like they always do, then cutting off the drive. Often, defenders stand and watch drivers, taking their eyes off their own man. If the Tide’s perimeter players cut when their men ball-watch the drivers, or screen and/or relocate as the driver attacks, that’ll open up 3s or create lanes for layups. For all that to work, the driver must occupy Clingan and pass to the open man. It won’t be drive-and-kick—but drive-and-kick, drive-and-kick, then drive-and-score.

Seeing Clingan sloughing off Nelson is likely, and Alabama hopes Nelson can attack Clingan, occupy him, then be a playmaker to knock down the first domino. He’s 7-0, so if Clingan hangs back, Nelson might be able to finish at least occasionally while drawing a whistle or two even. When Clingan has to step to him, Tide players must fill the void under the rim before Huskies do—but Clingan is agile enough to defend both the drive and the cut, which is why the Tide need to kick out and reattack.

Again, the key is relocation. If the perimeter guys are moving, they’ll create better shots at the rim by forcing the other UConn defenders to stay outside. That leaves Clingan on an island. Plus, staying home on shooters leads to being vulnerable to hard cuts and drives. It also means the Tide will be able to crash the offensive glass. That plays to Bama’s athleticism, pace, and tenacity.

Forcing Clingan to make multiple defensive efforts possession after possession has two monumental benefits: It increases the chances for Clingan to pick up fouls while also pushing his fitness levels. He averaged just 22 minutes a game, which includes several blowouts. The Tide’s incredible speed will take a toll, as will their relentless driving and cutting.

The potential return of guard Latrell Wrightsell Jr. from concussion protocol is no small thing. Wrightsell Jr. is Bama’s best shooter, a top defender, and maybe their most trusted primary ball-handler.

The smartest teams play multiple ways if they can. That’s where Bama will struggle if UConn slows the game down, but that’ll be easier said than done. The hope is that UConn wants to shoot 3s and fails to establish Clingan early. If Bama can up the pace, too, they have a good shot.

UConn are heavy, heavy favorites. They have a huge size advantage considering Bama’s biggest player, Grant Nelson, is essentially a guard. The key will be to keep the Tide from speeding up the pace. My guess is, UConn will be opportunistic in transition but will do everything they can to keep the tempo in their favor. A higher-scoring game will benefit Alabama.

Huskies head coach Dan Hurley runs a lot of good stuff, but UConn has a more basic college system. He wasn’t there when UConn was rolling in the past, but Hurley understands what it takes to bring the title home. From last season, the Huskies have won 10 straight NCAA tourney games by double figures. It’s never been done before.

The best chance to be “upset” is to allow a coin-flip game. The Huskies don’t play with coins.

However, Creighton defeated UConn by 19 points on February 20 by playing fast, driving, and moving; they had 18 assists (to UConn’s eight), scored 43 in the first half and 42 in the second. That’s why Hurley is likely to control the pace.

Clemson tried and was successful for a while against Bama, but UConn is much better. Defensively, I’m sure UConn is thinking: We’re just going to stay home because Alabama doesn’t shoot second-box jumpers. We don't have to help down low because Clingan will dominate near the rim. His timing as a shot blocker is special and could one day be elite.

Clingan could really cause the Tide problems on offense, too. He does such a great job of getting big in the lane and sealing off defenders—classic big-man stuff—to get good shot opportunities. I’m sure UConn is planning on making Bama play their game on that end: Make them put two defenders on Clingan after he catches a post-entry pass and then play out of those double-teams. If Bama tries to guard Clingan 1-on-1, like Illinois did, UConn can just let their big man go to work.

Whereas Alabama emulates D’Antoni’s NBA offense, UConn is more like today’s Lakers, who excel on fast-break opportunities and know what they’re doing offensively. Clingan is probably a better scorer as a sophomore than Anthony Davis was as a freshman at Kentucky—but he’s a poor free-throw shooter. Bama lacks the depth to hack Clingan all game and force him to the line. I think that’d be a mistake anyway, but they can’t stop Clingan so they might try it. “Hack a Klingon” memes are sure to follow.

It’s likely the Huskies resist early 3s because Alabama wants a high-flying shootout to wear down Clingan. UConn can always ramp up later, but that’d be a mistake if they’ve never done it before. I’m a firm believer that teams are best served by doing what’s natural.

(11) NC State vs. (1) Purdue

NC State has somehow found a way to win games. Lowly Louisville nearly knocked them out of the first round of the ACC tournament, but they won and then charged through both North Carolina and Duke to earn an NCAA tournament berth as an 11-seed. Then they knocked off 6-seed Texas Tech, Cinderella hopeful Oakland, 2-seed Marquette, and 4-seed Duke to reach the Final Four. That’s the magic of March Madness.

Much will fall on the officials. If one center fouls out, the other team will have an enormous advantage. Letting them play favors Burns Jr., who can use his width and footwork to get Edey into precarious positions. He can spin on Edey and get him into angles where he can draw fouls and score. Edey should be able to shoot over Burns Jr., but the Wolfpack center can really burn the Boilermaker big man on backdowns.

Purdue is much better and far more experienced than anyone NC State has faced in March. It’s hard to see them getting ruffled, which makes me think this could be an ugly game. We’ve seen it before: Buddy Hield’s Oklahoma team lost by 43 to Villanova in 2016. NC State is nowhere close to Purdue’s level, so I could see that happening here.

However, back in 1983, I was a high-school senior out with some basketball teammates on a Sunday night, enjoying a few alcoholic beverages (11 months short of Florida’s legal drinking age), and got into an argument with my friends. We all loved the Houston Cougars and Phi Slamma Jamma, and everyone was sure that Houston would topple NC State in the national title game—everyone except me.

I kept saying that NC State had run through two tournaments (ACC and NCAA) to get to this point—and they found a way to win at each stop. That can’t be ignored. That Houston team featured a bunch of unbelievably talented players, but they weren’t necessarily the best-organized group. Head coach Guy Lewis was older and not a good coach in my opinion, and Hakeem Olajuwon was just a sophomore. In the end, the Wolfpack controlled the tempo, kept the Cougars runners and dunkers at bay, held onto a first-half lead, and found a way to beat a team with superior talent, 54-52

That’s what could happen Saturday: NC State could win because no one thinks they can and then ride that feeling of invincibility through Monday night’s championship game. The difference is, Purdue has rock-solid discipline, a clear identity, and Edey is no underclassman. The pace might help NC State, but that also plays to Purdue’s strengths: They can win in varying styles.

Final word

If either game is within five points with four minutes to play, everything changes for the favorites. The Boilermakers, having never won a title, might tense up. Not UConn, though—Dan Hurley’s team knows how to finish this tournament.

We often say the NBA is a coach’s league, and Hurley has done a fantastic job. He’s a great program builder and has led his team on a stellar run. But winning back-to-back titles is super-fucking-hard. Over that last four minutes, the pressure will shift to UConn if the game is close.

I think Nate Oats is the best coach in college basketball and already the best Alabama coach of all time. Many in the NBA share that opinion. It helps that he has the best assistant coach in college, too, in Ryan Pannone.

If I could write the script for this weekend, we’d have Alabama facing NC State for the national championship—but I’m completely biased and want to see Pannone, my guy, cut down the net.

Thank you for reading TrueHoop!