Villarreal v Valencia

Kick Off: Sunday 20th March, 15:15

Competition: LaLiga

Watch Live: Viaplay Sports 1

For Bet Builder stats at your fingertips, head over to Andy’s Opta-powered Bet Builder stats tool, free to use on his website. Expert insight on the Premier League, SPFL, EFL, and major European leagues can be found on the football predictions section.

Villarreal came just short of completing a historic European comeback in midweek, but after falling just short, they tackle Valencia at El Madrigal.

How Villarreal Became European Football’s Ever-Present Underdog

Marcelino’s side faced a 4-0 deficit against Marseille ahead of their Thursday fixture but breathed life into the tie as they scrambled back to 3-0. Within touching distance of their opponents, they threw everything at their opponents in a fervent atmosphere before conceding a sucker punch extra-time goal that finally ended their Europa League hopes.

The prospect of Villarreal returning to Europe next year looks slim, though after three successive wins in LaLiga, they have given themselves an outside chance with 10 matches remaining. It will require a mammoth effort and almost certainly means they need to win on Sunday.

Visiting La Ceramica is a Valencia side that has recently drawn at home against Real Madrid. But while Los Che are formidable in front of their home supporters, they have a poor record on the road. Only three of their 11 wins have come on their travels.

Ruben Baraja’s side may typically toil away from home, but they have the advantage of having had eight days to prepare for this game while their opponents were emptying themselves in a futile quest to come back to Europe.

Javi Guerra: Valencia’s Teenage Gem in Midfield

Here is the best advice for your Villarreal v Valencia Bet Builder.

Home side dominates this match-up

The Villarreal v Valencia stats show this is a fixture dominated by whichever side is playing at home. Ten of the last 12 between these sides in LaLiga have been won by the hosts, including the previous match this season, claimed 3-1 by Valencia on January 2, albeit with the aid of two penalties.

Villarreal’s recent form would certainly point to a similar outcome. The only defeat they have suffered in their last 10 was in Marseille, where their 4-0 collapse was out of character to the results they have been producing lately. In particular, Villarreal are scoring goals freely. They have netted at least three goals in four of their last five matches.

The Never-Ending Tale of Valencia’s Woes

Valencia, meanwhile, tend to concede on their travels. Twenty-three times they have seen the ball hit their net on the road compared to only eight at home. Given Villarreal have extensive defensive injury issues, they should fancy themselves to score, though.

These statistics point to this game following the recent trend of Villarreal v Valencia head-to-head. The home team look likely to score at least twice, and though Valencia are capable of finding the net, they are unlikely to do so enough to get the win.

Prediction:

Villarreal @ 2.05 on Paddy Power

Over 2.5 goals @ 1.85 on Paddy Power

Both team to score @ 1.73 on Paddy Power

Baena one to watch

Villarreal’s only player to average more than 1 shot on target per 90 is striker Alexander Sorloth, who at 1.25 to do that in this encounter looks a little underpriced.

Perhaps better value is Alex Baena. He did not start against Marseille in midweek but could be drafted into the team to provide some fresh legs. With five shots and three on target in his last three LaLiga home matches, his price of 1.83 is appealing.

Alex Baena: Villarreal’s Next Homegrown Gem?

A price of 3.5 on Baena to score or assist looks good given he has one of the other in four of his last five games. He is a man in form and, compared to his colleagues, relatively rested.

Villarreal managed four shots on target in Valencia. Two of these came from Alberto Moreno, who got a couple from left-back, and another from 31-year-old forward Gerard Moreno, who could be benched after playing 90 in midweek. Ben Brereton Diaz got the other off the bench but has since left.

While Hugo Duro is Valencia’s top scorer on 12 goals for the season, Roman Yaremchuk is the one to watch in terms of shots on target. He posts 1.17 shots on target per 90 compared to Duro’s 0.88. He had managed shots on target in four successive games before being muted by Getafe last week. Against a depleted Villarreal defence, look for him to work the keeper at least once.

Giorgi Mamardashvili: Valencia’s Georgian Goalkeeper

A bet on Pepelu to repeat his achievement of getting a shot on target in the previous meeting is effectively a wager on Valencia winning a penalty. He has only four shots on target all season outside spot kicks, and after missing his last against Almeria may not even be on them any longer.

Predictions:

Alex Baena to have 1+ shots on target @ 1.83 on Paddy Power

Alex Baena to score or assist @ 3.50 on Paddy Power

Roman Yaremchuk to have 1+ shots on target @ 2.0 on Paddy Power

Gaya to be targeted?

Ilias Akhomach is Villarreal’s most prolific criminal when it comes to giving away free kicks yet is likely to be on the bench for this game. Alex Baena is, therefore, the shortest price to commit one foul at just 1.08. To really boost a Villarreal v Valencia bet builder, he is 1.5 to commit multiple fouls.

If Akhomach starts, however, the value is on him. He commits 2.52 fouls per 90 and yet is 2 to give away a couple or more free kicks. When Villarreal visited Valencia in January, he gave away three.

Player Analysis: José Gayà

Francis Coquelin, meanwhile, should be counted on to give away a free kick at 1.11. He is likely to be asked to play a significant portion of this match. He tends to give away fouls in twos and threes, so backing him to commit a couple of fouls at 1.67 looks profitable.

From the Valencia side, Javier Guerra has been giving free kicks away freely in recent weeks. He committed three fouls last time out against Getafe and four against Real Madrid the week before. He has played only one game in 2024 without giving away a single free kick and has given away multiple free kicks nine times in 19 starts.

No Samuel Chukwueze, no Nicolas Jackson, no Pau Torres…no problem. Villarreal bounced back from their opening day defeat to Betis and won 1-0 in Mallorca via a goal from Gerard Moreno.@Tactics_Tweets analyzes Quique Setién’s Villarreal:https://t.co/VDD30JHxcl pic.twitter.com/4SsNZFwPpY

— Breaking The Lines (@BTLvid) August 18, 2023

When these sides met previously, much of the action came down Valencia’s left flank. For this reason, odds of 1.53 on Jose Gaya giving up a free kick look significant. Although he gives up a smaller number of free kicks per 90 than right-back Dimitri Foulquier, with the match angled towards his flank, it is surprising to see him at a much bigger price than the Frenchman to commit a transgression.

Elsewhere on the left, Sergi Canos looks interesting value. He has committed two fouls in each of his last two starts, despite playing an hour on each occasion. He also started the previous match between these sides and gave up a free kick. At 1.5 to commit one foul, there is value there.

Predictions:

Alex Baena to commit 2+ fouls @ 1.50 on Paddy Power

Francis Coquelin to commit 2+ @ 1.67 on Paddy Power

Jose Gaya to commit 1+ fouls @ 1.53 on Paddy Power

By: @AndysBetClubUK

Featured Image: @GabFoligno / Pressinphoto / Icon Sport