Lyon v Brest

Kick Off: Sunday 14th April, 19:00

Competition: Ligue 1

Watch Live: TNT Sports 5

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5. When Rayan Cherki replaced Corentin Tolisso at the hour-mark, Lyon were losing 1-0 at Nantes.

They proceeded to win 3-1, with Cherki completing 6/7 dribbles, winning 8/11 ground duels and 2 fouls, and registering 3 shots on target.@lebzygold: https://t.co/zO1ZwZP0Mu pic.twitter.com/LrDIzAvwCf

— Breaking The Lines (@BTLvid) April 7, 2024

The undoubted highlight of the Ligue 1 weekend is Lyon’s home match with Brest, which pits two of the league’s in-form teams against each other. Brest take top billing in this match as they sit second in the French top-flight, having been far likelier to battle relegation at the start of this season than to fight for a European spot, let alone seriously compete to be best of the rest behind PSG.

And yet, here the Bretons are. Each challenge presented to them, they seem to rise to the occasion. This was evident as they fell behind against lowly Metz last weekend but rallied to secure a 4-3 victory, narrowly surviving a late lapse. Lyon, meanwhile, are relieved not to be in a relegation battle after a woeful start to the campaign. The turnaround has been remarkable.

Pierre Sage has this squad all pulling together in the same direction at least, and after a run of 10 wins from their last 12 in all competitions, they stand a genuine shot of reaching Europe either via a strong league finish or the Coupe de France, in which they will face PSG in the final on May 25.

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With France’s biggest guns not in action this weekend as they have been excused in order to prepare for their European second legs, this game deservedly takes top billing. Here are the best tips for your Lyon v Brest bet builder.

Lyon to break Brest resistance

This is a major test for Brest, whose weaker results of late have tended to come away from home. There were defeats against Lens and PSG, while there was also a draw against bottom-side Clermont. Lyon are, therefore, attractive favourites at a price of 2.2.

OL were not at their best last weekend against Nantes but rallied impressively in the second half to secure maximum points after labouring for much of the first 45. It showed both the depth of the squad they possess and the ability of Pierre Sage to problem-solve in the game.

Lyon and Lens began the season in a relegation fight.

Today, they’re both find themselves in the hunt for European football, and they will face off today at the Groupama Stadium.@AndysBetClubUK has you covered with the best picks for today’s match: https://t.co/IcF0SeXgn2 pic.twitter.com/XlOtUUe2lp

— Breaking The Lines (@BTLvid) March 3, 2024

Their home form is improving after winning only one of their first nine of the campaign in front of their supporters. They have won three of the last five, though a relapse against Lens last month shows that all is not perfect yet. Nevertheless, the value is on the hosts. Backing them with a -0.5 handicap offers a marginally better price, too.

It is worth bearing in mind, though, that the last three between these clubs in Lyon have been drawn. Brest have not won in the Rhone Valley since 1976, 13 trips ago.

Goals, meanwhile, may well follow. Lyon have stuck nine times in their last four matches while they have kept only one clean sheet in their last six league encounters. Their opponents are coming off the back of a 4-3 victory, showing that, although they have a strong defensive record, they can be exploited.

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The head-to-head record shows only one goal in the past two matches between these sides, yet this is bucking a historical trend, which shows both teams have scored in their previous 12 meetings. Odds on both over 2.5 goals and Both teams to score look good value.

Prediction:

Lyon (-0.5 handicap) @ 2.25 on Paddy Power

Over 2.5 goals @ 2.0 on Paddy Power

Both teams to score @ 1.75 on Paddy Power

Lacazette to continue hot form

Alexandre Lacazette is clearly Lyon’s major threat in this game, having managed a shot on target in 13 of his last 16 starts. Only six of these matches have seen him work the keeper twice, yet after doing so in back-to-back games, he is 1.91 to do so on this occasion. Given Brest’s tight defence, that appears unlikely.

With 14 goals for the season, he is overwhelmingly OL’s greatest goal threat. Only Jake O’Brien otherwise has more than two goals for the campaign, while Brest’s strength in the air would expect to quell the Irishman, who is priced at 6.5 to score anytime.

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Indeed, Lacazette is worthwhile value at 2.4 to find the net at any point given he has three goals in his last four and has scored in 10 of his last 15 matches.

Brest, meanwhile, have been interchanging strikers Martin Satriano and Steve Mounie all season. Mounie, who scored a late winner the last time these sides met, is 1.5 to manage a shot on target while Satriano, who is the likelier starter, is 1.53. Both are good value at these prices.

The visitors manage under 5 shots on target per game on average, with their forwards accounting for around a third of their effort. Mathias Pereira Lage is their shortest-priced player, but after managing shots on target in just four of his last seven starts, at 1.44 he is realistically too short.

Predictions:

Alexandre Lacazette to score anytime @ 2.4 on Paddy Power

Martin Satriano to have 1+ shots on target @ 1.53 on Paddy Power

A foul Chardonnet you will love

Lyon have five players in their probable starting XI who are averaging more than 1 four per 90 minutes. Of these men, two committed multiple fouls in Brest the last time these sides met: Nicolas Tagliafico (3) and Alexandre Lacazette (3), who each committed three.

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It is not a surprise they are short odds to get into trouble here. Lacazette is 1.1 to make a foul and Tagliafico is 1.17, with the players respectively committing 1.94 and 1.56 fouls per 90.

While both can justifiably be backed, there is better value to be found on winger Ernest Nuamah, who has 2.21 fouls per 90 this season – the leading figure of any likely starter in OL’s ranks. A price of 1.36 to give away a single free kick and 2.75 to give away two are both strong value on a player who has typically been earning at least 70 minutes of game time per match over the last two months.

From a Brest perspective, centre-back Brendan Chardonnet is a player to follow given that he gave away 3 free kicks when these clubs last met. He only commits 1.07 fouls per 90 but had trouble against Lacazette last time out. Fouls tend to come in clusters with this centre-back, who has six games in his last 25 when he has given away at least three fouls.

A more conservative bet that offers value is on defensive midfielder Mahdi Camara to give away a foul at 1.5. A former Saint-Etienne player, the 25-year-old has a historic rivalry with OL and will be fired up for this match. With 1.62 fouls per 90, he is Brest’s third most prolific criminal of their probable starters. Having given away free kicks in five of his last six games, he is likely to be in the thick of the action here and the 1.5 on offer is a steal.

Predictions:

Ernest Nuamah to commit 1+ fouls @ 1.36 on Paddy Power

Ernest Nuamah to commit 2+ fouls @ 2.75 on Paddy Power

Mahdi Camara to commit 1+ fouls @ 1.50 on Paddy Power

Brendan Chardonnet to commit 2+ fouls @ 3.0 on Paddy Power

By: @AndysBetClubUk

Featured Image: @GabFoligno / Anthony Dibon / Icon Sport

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