Macron faces a second term filled with enormous challenges, but his margin for maneuver is limited by political realities at home and in Europe.
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Insight: As Challenges Mount, Can Europe Correct Its Course?
The liberal European order has been under attack from within and without in recent years. The EU became a convenient punching bag for opportunistic politicians in many of its member countries, and although the populist wave that once seemed like an existential threat to the union has since subsided, vestiges of it remain. The work to rebuild trans-Atlantic ties with the US under President Biden has begun, even as Russia's attempts to destabilize the European order have not abated.
Elections and Domestic Politics
Overshadowed by the rise of the far right has been the growing support for various national Green parties, driven by both the mounting pressure to address climate change and the absence of any other viable political home for left-leaning voters. Meanwhile, even as the center has held against the threat from the political extremes in many recent elections across Europe, compromise might be increasingly hard to come by in the face of political polarization.
The European Union
The EU managed to survive the populist wave by turning to its historical crisis-response strategy: muddling through. But efforts to reform the EU have stalled, leaving it vulnerable in the face of future crises—and to the changing global geopolitical landscape.
The language coming out of the summits marks a win for U.S. President Joe Biden, who is seeking to reinvigorate and reorient America’s alliances after the chaos of Donald Trump’s presidency, with an emphasis on countering China’s rise.
Trade and Economy
Europe-US Relations
The arrival of the Biden administration improved the tone of the EU-US relationship, even as divergences on key policy and strategic issues continued to arise. For now, any tensions are on hold due to the need for cohesion over the Russian invasion of Ukraine, but they haven’t necessarily gone away.
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