Latin American leaders may attempt to dodge the political ramifications of the war in Ukraine, but the invasion is likely to rock regional economies for the coming year.
Can AMLO Deliver on His Vision for Mexico’s Future?
The election of Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, or AMLO, in July 2018 was supposed to result in a radical transformation for Mexico. But since taking office in December 2018, the Mexican president has struggled to deliver on his campaign promises, while playing catchup to Donald Trump's quixotic threats linking trade and immigration. Now he will have to reboot relations with the U.S. under President Joe Biden.
With no real political opposition and a press that regularly caves to pressure, AMLO is in the driver’s seat when it comes to pushing forward with a range of policies that his supporters call progressive and his critics say could reverse the country’s economic gains.
Drug War and Violence
Mexico’s long-standing war on drugs, with the support of the United States, has neither slowed the flow of illicit substances into America, nor reduced violence in Mexico. The country’s homicide rates remain high, even as the security force AMLO created to tackle the problem is now being deployed to the country’s southern border to try to deter migrant arrivals.
U.S. Relations and Foreign Policy
Mexico’s relations with the United States under Trump figured prominently among AMLO’s challenges. But Biden’s more conventional approach to the full range of bilateral relations might end up being tougher to manage than Trump’s fixation on just two issues—migration and trade.