Jesse Felder

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Are markets ready for the Fed to pop the asset bubble?

For some time, we have feared that the Fed’s tightening would eventually push short-term interest rates too high, hitting U.S. growth and triggering …

Federal Reserve

The Inflation Recognition Moment

Before I dive into the topic of the day, I’d like to briefly discuss my recent spite trade (Growth, Value, and Spite). Specifically, I closed out the …

Labor Economics

Discretionary/Staples testing important support says Joe Friday

<b>CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE</b><p>The Discretionary/Staples ratio has been in a solid uptrend over the past 8-years, inside of rising channel (A), which sends …

Stock Markets

Here's where the jobs are — in one chart

The health-care, manufacturing and business services industries led job gains for the month of June, besting laggards like retail, according to the …

Health Care

Say Hello to Full Employment

Want to know where the economy is headed? Look at Des Moines.<p>This morning, the Labor Department announced that the national unemployment rate ticked up to 4 percent in June for good reasons, as hundreds of thousands more Americans sought work. For the first time in recorded history, the number of …

Iowa

Trump says U.S. tariffs could be applied to Chinese goods worth $500 billion

WASHINGTON/BEIJING (Reuters) - President Donald Trump said on Thursday the United States may ultimately impose tariffs on more than a half-trillion dollars' worth of Chinese goods as the world's two largest economies hurtled toward the start of a trade war.<p>Trump confirmed that the United States …

China

A Record $2.5 Trillion in Mergers Were Announced in the First Half of 2018

<i>Get the DealBook newsletter to make sense of major business and policy headlines — and the power-brokers who shape them.<br>__________</i><p>More than $2.5 trillion in mergers were announced during the first half of the year, as fears of Silicon Valley’s growing ambitions helped drive a record run of …

Mergers & Acquisitions

Letter From a Birmingham Museum

As regular readers of <i>Epsilon Theory</i> know, I may make my home in the wilds of Connecticut today, doing my best Eddie Albert / <i>Green Acres</i> impersonation …

Black History

In This Economy, Quitters Are Winning

Job-hopping increases, in possible boon to wage growth and productivity<p>Kimberly Enoch had a stable job working from home managing grants for a Little Rock, Ark., nonprofit, but she was bored and thought she could do better.<p>So she quit.<p>Within three months, she landed a job as a grant writer at …

Commuting

Silicon Valley insiders say Facebook, Snapchat, and Twitter are using 'behavioral cocaine' to turn people into addicts

Silicon Valley insiders have told the BBC that tech firms, including Facebook, Snapchat, and Twitter, deliberately engineering their platforms to foster addictive behavior.<p>Aza Raskin, the inventor of the infinite-scroll feature that allows you to endlessly scroll down websites, said: "It's as if …

Social Media

How Google and Facebook Are Monopolizing Ideas

An ad ban for bail-bond companies raises the question whether it’s fair that an entire industry can be kicked out of a major advertising channel<p>In early May Google banned bail-bond companies from advertising on its platforms. Such companies profit from “communities of color and low income …

googleandfacebook

How Smart TVs in Millions of U.S. Homes Track More Than What’s On Tonight

The growing concern over online data and user privacy has been focused on tech giants like Facebook and devices like smartphones. But people’s data is also increasingly being vacuumed right out of their living rooms via their televisions, sometimes without their knowledge.<p>In recent years, data …

Samba

A $240 Billion Lending Binge Threatens to Burn China Brokers

Chinese brokerages are sitting on more than $240 billion of loans that grow riskier by the day as the country’s equity market tumbles.<p>Extended to …

China

Do we need to start lowering our expectations for the Chinese economy? We're looking at the most disappointing set of data there in 2 years... good morning https://t.co/7e91PLQK3U

Contrary to most headlines, our dollar breadth indicator, which measures the $ vs. 20+ currencies, is signaling dollar exhaustion. Note that this has historically signaled turning points in the $DXY. https://t.co/on1U8BRAk4

Eurozone pay rises a relief for unions and ECB alike | Financial Times

Eurozone workers are finally beginning to feel the region’s economic improvements where many think it matters most — their wages.<p>While the eurozone’s …

Economics

Bank of Japan Takes Away Punch Bowl, Balance Sheet Declines

Was “QQE” just a pretext for bringing the government bond market under absolute control to avoid a Greek-style debt crisis?

Bank of Japan

Commodities about to rally off 16-year support?

<b>CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE</b><p>Commodities have spent the majority of the past 16-years inside of rising channel (1). Despite this long-term uptrend that …

Trading

Investors Can’t Get Enough German Bonds

Even as central banks tighten the taps on monetary policy, hunger for German debt remains undiminished<p>Even as central banks tighten the taps on monetary policy, hunger for German debt remains undiminished.<p>Yields on U.S. Treasurys continue to rise, but those on German bonds are falling, dragging …

Investing

Private payrolls miss expectations as companies can't find enough people to hire

Private payrolls grew at a disappointing rate last month as businesses struggled to find enough new hires, ADP and Moody’s Analytics said …

Economy

Brace for a lost decade for U.S. stocks, warn Morningstar strategists

It’s time to put away the grill and fireworks and instead focus on the Fed minutes that will hit during afternoon trading.<p>If the smoke signals from …

Stock Markets

Every Inflation Measurement Is Increasing

Reading Time: 5 minutes<p>The year over year core PCE price index was up 1.955% in May. If you round the data up, the Fed has finally reached its target …

Markets

The Bear Drinking a Margarita in a Hot Tub Is Your Summer 2018 Hero

It’s time to let a bear redefine your idea of summer relaxation.<p>Mark Hough of Altadena, Calif. filmed a precocious bear who got into the swing of the …

Hot Tubs

Dick Bove: Trump will eventually clash with the Federal Reserve, turning monetary policy into a political activity

Washington and the nation are very focused on the fact that Supreme Court Justice Anthony Kennedy has resigned, leaving the high court vulnerable to …

Federal Reserve

Regulator warns on European banks’ reliance on cloud computing | Financial Times

The use of cloud computing by banks for increasingly core services could present a risk to the financial system because so many institutions rely on …

Financial Conduct Authority

The Dollar’s Reserve Dominance is Slipping

The U.S. dollar, long the favored reserve currency of global central banks, continues to cede ground to competitors like the euro. The greenback’s share of global foreign-exchange reserves has fallen for five consecutive quarters, according to new data from the International Monetary Fund data. …

International Monetary Fund

Taiwan’s Technology Secrets Come Under Assault From China

Trying to break into semiconductor markets, mainland companies are accused of poaching employees and stealing data<p>HSINCHU, Taiwan—In late 2016, an engineer at Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., the world’s largest contract chip manufacturer, received a call from a Chinese rival company asking …

China

AT&T promised lower prices after Time Warner merger—it’s raising them instead

Most DirecTV Now prices go up $5 a month, weeks after AT&T bought Time Warner.<p>AT&T is raising the base price of its DirecTV Now streaming service by …

Net Neutrality

Life-saving optimism: what the west can learn from Africa | Chigozie Obioma

He argued: 'If you lived in a world with no suffering, it will be an abnormality. That would make anyone miserable.'<p>Nigeria, like most African nations, has been taught and dictated to since its independence, largely seen by the rest of the world as a receptacle for ideas rather than a generator of …

Mental Health