Live Politics Podcast: Will Trump Fire Rosenstein? Withdraw Kavanaugh?FiveThirtyEight In a live taping of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, the crew discusses the future of both Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein and Supreme …
The GOP’s Least-Worst Option Is If Kavanaugh Withdraws — And SoonFiveThirtyEight - Nate Silver Brett Kavanaugh has never been a popular Supreme Court nominee — and he’s probably becoming more unpopular still following allegations earlier this …
Don’t Assume Trump Will Fire Rosenstein — Or That He Won’tFiveThirtyEight - Perry Bacon Jr. The odds that President Trump forces out Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein have increased, I think, because Trump may now have the grounds to …
If Kavanaugh Doesn’t Make It, Who’s Next?FiveThirtyEight - Oliver Roeder Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh says he’s not going anywhere. He now faces two allegations of sexual assault, including attempted rape when he …
The Biggest Divides On The Kavanaugh Allegations Are By Party — Not GenderFiveThirtyEight - Perry Bacon Jr. Americans are deeply divided in how they view accusations of sexual assault, sexual harassment and other kinds of sexual misconduct. They’re divided …
We Looked At Hundreds Of Endorsements. Here’s Who Republicans Are Listening To.FiveThirtyEight - Meredith Conroy, Nathaniel Rakich and Mai Nguyen This story was produced in collaboration with ABC News and Ballotpedia.1 On the afternoon of July 18, President Trump tweeted his “full and total …
Kavanaugh May Be Getting More UnpopularFiveThirtyEight - Janie Velencia and Perry Bacon Jr. Brett Kavanaugh was already one of the most unpopular Supreme Court nominees in recent history, and while we don’t have a lot of polling data since …
The Gender Gap Might Narrow From 2016 — But That Could Be Bad For The GOPFiveThirtyEight - Janie Velencia Women are gearing up for the midterms. The Democratic Party is nominating women in record numbers. Democratic women say they’re more excited to vote …
Politics Podcast: Our Forecast Is 7,000 Lines Of CodeFiveThirtyEight In the latest installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast’s “Model Talk,” Nate Silver discusses how unexpected events, like a troubled …
Can A Democrat Really Win A Senate Race In Tennessee? Or Mississippi?!?!FiveThirtyEight - Nate Silver Republicans don’t have a lot of exposure in the Senate this year — but they’re doing what they can to help Democrats make the most of it. The GOP …
Beto O’Rourke Is Crafting His Own MythologyFiveThirtyEight - Clare Malone The Texas congressman challenging Ted Cruz for his Senate seat is taking full advantage of his chance to make a first impression. The Beto O’Rourke …
How Will The Troubled Kavanaugh Nomination Affect The Midterms?FiveThirtyEight - A FiveThirtyEight Chat Welcome to FiveThirtyEight’s weekly politics chat. The transcript below has been lightly edited. micah (Micah Cohen, managing editor): For your …
Election Update: Who’s Leading In Obama-Trump DistrictsFiveThirtyEight - Nathaniel Rakich The most likely scenario in the upcoming midterm elections: split control of Congress. As of Tuesday evening,1 the Classic version of our model gave …
Why Manafort’s Flip May Matter More Than 25 Russian IndictmentsFiveThirtyEight - Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux For much of the past year, whenever a major new indictment has come down in special counsel Robert Mueller’s investigation, we’ve been showing you a …
Will Democratic Senators Lose Despite The ‘Blue Wave’?FiveThirtyEight - Nate Silver Our congressional forecasts reflect a blend of several different methods of prediction. But for the most part, those methods tell a fairly consistent …
Politics Podcast: Kavanaugh’s Confirmation Could Be In TroubleFiveThirtyEight - Clare Malone, Micah Cohen, Meredith Conroy and Jody Avirgan Judge Brett Kavanaugh’s prospects of confirmation to the U.S. Supreme Court changed significantly over the weekend after Christine Blasey Ford told …
Americans Didn’t Believe Anita Hill. How Will They Respond To Kavanaugh’s Accuser?FiveThirtyEight - Janie Velencia Soon after Christine Blasey Ford, a Palo Alto University professor, came forward to speak publicly about an allegation that Supreme Court nominee …
Can Vulnerable California Republicans Stay Out Of Trump’s Shadow?FiveThirtyEight - Anna Maria Barry-Jester TURLOCK, Calif. — By most accounts, Rep. Jeff Denham is a strong incumbent. He has represented California’s Central Valley for four terms in …
What Happens To Brett Kavanaugh’s Nomination NowFiveThirtyEight - Perry Bacon Jr. The fight over Brett Kavanaugh’s Supreme Court nomination looks much different after Christine Blasey Ford came forward in a Washington Post …
Politics Podcast: What Manafort’s Plea Means For TrumpFiveThirtyEight The FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast is recording a live podcast in New York City on Sept. 24. You can come! Get details and tickets here. President …
The White House Unified On Old Issues — And Then Started New FightsFiveThirtyEight - Perry Bacon Jr. The Trump administration has deep internal conflicts. That was true when President Trump was sworn into office, and it’s true now. But the nature of …
Trump’s Approval Rating Is Down. Mueller’s Is Up. Is There A Connection?FiveThirtyEight - Janie Velencia Since taking office, President Trump has faced an onslaught of controversies — allegations of infidelity and shady connections with Russia, …
Election Update: Democrats’ Chances In The 13 Romney-Clinton DistrictsFiveThirtyEight - Nathaniel Rakich The biggest update: We now have a Senate forecast to go with our House forecast! The “Classic” version of the Senate forecast currently gives …
Politics Podcast: The Battle For The Senate Is Full Of Interesting RacesFiveThirtyEight - Nate Silver and Galen Druke The FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast is recording a live podcast in New York City on Sept. 24. Get details and tickets here. Our Senate forecast is …
Republicans Are Favorites In The Senate, But Democrats Have Two Paths To An UpsetFiveThirtyEight - Nate Silver Many of the individual race forecasts in the FiveThirtyEight Senate model, which launched on Wednesday, look pretty optimistic for Democrats. The …
How FiveThirtyEight’s House, Senate And Governor Models WorkFiveThirtyEight - Nate Silver The principles behind our House, Senate and gubernatorial forecasts should be familiar to our longtime readers. They take lots of polls, perform …
hexFiveThirtyEight - Nate Silver If the Senate is split 50-50, Republicans maintain majority control because Vice President Mike Pence has the tiebreaking vote. This analysis treats …
Election Update: The Swing District ShowdownFiveThirtyEight - Nathaniel Rakich Less than two months remain until the big day, and Democrats are in their best position yet in our House forecast. Our “Classic” model gives the …
Does Obama Motivate Democrats Anymore? Or Just Republicans?FiveThirtyEight - A FiveThirtyEight Chat Welcome to FiveThirtyEight’s weekly politics chat. The transcript below has been lightly edited. micah (Micah Cohen, politics editor): With former …
