dannec

622 Flips | 1 Magazine | 6 Likes | 24 Following | 515 Followers | @dannec | Economist and fomer Rose of Tralee.

Satellite images reveal which countries cheat on their economic statistics

The temptation is great for government officials to manipulate economic statistics. Foremost among them is gross domestic product, the most commonly used measure of a country’s economy, which often serves as a proxy for a government’s financial stewardship. In a free society, groups like the civil …

Economics

Philip Lane on systemic risk, transparency and Brexit

The Central Bank of Ireland governor speaks with Dan Hardie and Chris Jeffery about transparency, shadow banking, ECB succession and tackling …

Transparency

Some simple Bitcoin Economics | Becker Friedman Institute

Five Reasons Why the Focus on Trade Deficits Is Misleading

President Trump has asserted that trade balances are a key measure of a nation’s commercial success and that large US trade deficits prove that past …

Economics

The Hartz reforms, the German Miracle, and labor reallocation

Abstract<p>We analyse the recent history of unemployment and labor reallocation in the German economy using a variant of Lucas and Prescott’s (1974) …

These are the best books for learning modern statistics—and they’re all free

Statistics came well before computers. It would be very different if it were the other way around.<p>The stats most people learn in high school or college come from the time when computations were done with pen and paper. “Statistics were constrained by the computational technology available at the …

Machine Learning

Macroprudential stress tests

Current stress testing of banks is focused on the resiliency of individual banks to exogenous shocks. This column describes how the next generation …

Economics

Ancient Origins of the Global Variation in Economic Preferences -- by Anke Becker, Benjamin Enke, Armin Falk

Variation in economic preferences is systematically related to both individual and aggregate economic outcomes, yet little is known about the origins …

Economics

In search of fiscal space: A new database

The availability of fiscal space has been at the centre of recent debates on the effective use of fiscal policy. This column introduces a new …

Economics

New book on the origins of happiness

Public policy needs a new focus: not ‘wealth creation’ but ‘wellbeing creation’<p>Schools and individual teachers have a huge effect on the happiness of …

Self-improvement

Sentiments in SVARs

Original Article<p>Corresponding Author<p>E-mail address:patrick.feve@tse-fr.eu<p>University of Toulouse I‐Capitole<p>Corresponding author: Patrick Fève, …

Moral Values and Voting: Trump and Beyond -- by Benjamin Enke

This paper studies the supply of and demand for moral values in recent U.S. presidential elections. The hypothesis is that people exhibit …

Online

Google is using 46 billion data points to predict the medical outcomes of hospital patients

Some of Google’s top AI researchers are trying to predict your medical outcome as soon as you’re admitted to the hospital.<p>A new research paper, published Jan. 24 with 34 co-authors and not peer-reviewed, claims better accuracy than existing software at predicting outcomes like whether a patient …

Rolling back regulations often comes before a financial meltdown, according to 300 years of history

The blame for financial meltdowns often focuses on irresponsible traders and greedy bankers. But politicians, whose policies sometimes fan the flames, deserve scrutiny as well, according to a fascinating analysis of booms and busts since the 18th century by Jihad Dagher, an economist at the IMF. …

Regulation

The real reason American health care is so expensive

Ready or Not for the Next Recession?, by Barry Eichengreen

COPENHAGEN – A sunny day is the best time to check whether the roof is watertight. For economic policymakers, the proverbial sunny day has arrived: …

A Nobel Prize-winning economist thinks we’re asking all the wrong questions about inequality

America is trying to come to terms with its economic inequality. Does inequality spur growth or kill it? Is it a necessary evil—or necessarily bad? Angus Deaton, an economics professor at Princeton, and the recipient of the 2015 Nobel Prize in economics, is asked questions like these all the …

Economics

The DSGE Model Quarrel (Again)

A recent paper by <b>Christiano, Eichenbaum and Trabandt</b> (C.E.T.) on Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Models (DSGEs) has generated quite a reaction …

Economics

13 economists on the research that shaped our world in 2017

At the end of every year, culture critics get to compile best of the year lists. But why should they have all the fun? Just like films and albums, economics research deserves a little reflection. To identify the research that mattered most in 2017, Quartz decided to call in some help, enlisting …

Income Inequality

Groundbreaking empirical research shows where innovation really comes from

Breaking down barriers for underrepresented kids could quadruple America’s pool of inventors.<p>Gaps in opportunity for talented kids with low socioeconomic status don’t just hold back poor, female, black, or Latino children as individuals — they also impose potentially enormous losses to society as a …

The Problem With Bayesian Model Averaging...

The problem is that one of the models considered is traditionally assumed true (explicitly or implicitly) since the prior model probabilities sum to …

Measurement Matters – The decline of maternal mortality

Our World in Data presents the empirical evidence on global development in entries dedicated to specific topics.<br>This short post draws on data and …

Pregnancy

An innovative introductory economics course at Stanford is now free online

Econ 101, the introductory college economics course that is often held in overcrowded lecture halls packed with half-asleep freshmen, is finally getting a facelift.<p>At the front of the class is Raj Chetty, a 38-year-old economist who publishes some of the field’s most intriguing papers year after …

UC Berkeley

A strong correlation is breaking down during the Nikkei's epic rally

Over the last couple months as a Japanese investor, the moves have been nothing less of extraordinary. Since the end of August to a couple weeks ago, the rally of 22% was unprecedented as the market took cues from the other global equity markets hitting all-time highs in many cases (US, German, …

Trading

CeMMAP Software Library

MATLAB

The long-term consequences of short-term incentives

Worries about the dangers of short-term incentives for CEOs are rarely backed by rigorous evidence. This column uses data over a ten-year period to …

CEOs

The Institutional Consequences of Nudging – Nudges, Politics, and the Law

Alemanno, A., and A. Spina. 2014. Nudging legally: On the checks and balances of behavioral regulation. <i>International Journal of Constitutional Law</i> …

Ideas aren’t running out, but they are getting more expensive to find

The rate of productivity growth in advanced economies has been falling. Optimists hope for a fourth industrial revolution, while pessimists lament …

Fourth Industrial Revolution

And Yet It Moves: Inflation and the Great Recession

Over the last decade, the developed world has been hit by the deepest recession since the Great Depression and a rollercoaster in commodity prices. …

Great Depression