Aaditya Thakur

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Grasping Reality with Both Hands: bradford

I’m planning to spend most of my time today talking about the objectives of monetary policy. As you will hear, the FOMC has made great progress in …

Grasping Reality with Both Hands: bradford

The Kremlin’s Machiavelli has led Russia to disaster

Just a couple of months ago it was fashionable to laud Vladimir Putin for his strategic genius. American rightwingers contrasted his sure-footedness …

Russia

Economist's View

Grasping Reality with Both Hands: bradford

<b>Over at Equitable Growth</b>: I think there are four big valid issues with Thomas Piketty's grand argument:

The race to raise interest rates

<i>If you do not like the sporting metaphors in the post below, you can blame new MPC member Andy Haldane whose</i> <i>speech</i> <i>I have just read. Or maybe the</i> …

Economist's View

The capex call

2014-03-28T19:53:44.000Z<p>By: Cardiff Garcia<p>Like other parts of the US economic recovery — housing, the labour market — capital expenditures by …

Cycling

Goldman Sounds The Alarm On Stocks

We imagine this call is going to get a lot of debate going about how expensive stocks are right now, and the durability of this rally.<p>Goldman equity strategist David Kostin declares in his latest 'Weekly Kickstart' note that the market is getting pricey.<p>These three paragraphs pack a major punch. …

Markets

Grasping Reality with Both Hands: bradford

Is QE deflationary or not?

2013-12-04T19:45:05.000Z<p>By: Izabella Kaminska<p>We first proposed the idea that QE could be (but wasn’t necessarily) deflationary a couple of years ago. …

From LIBOR to Fed Funds: Five facts about the US interbank lending market

Contracts worth hundreds of trillions – ranging from corporate loans to mortgages to rate swaps and LIBOR futures – are all priced based on a …

Obamacare’s original sin: Implementation delays driven by dumb talking points were a huge mistake.

The country is teetering on the brink of a government shutdown, driven by Republican demands for a one-year delay of the main portions of Obamacare. …

Tim Duy's Fed Watch

Much Fedspeak this week, expressing a wide variety of views. I need a scorecard to keep track, and I probably still missed one or two:<p>Bottom Line: Is …

The paradox of over-production in a world of QE

2013-09-20T16:40:13.000Z<p>By: Izabella Kaminska<p>The Fed’s taper no-show this week resulted in a plethora of commentaries and articles flagging the risks …

Emerging Markets

Charts to Track Timing for QE3 Tapering

We can update three of the four charts that I'm using to track when the Fed will start tapering the QE3 purchases.<p>The September FOMC meeting is on …

El-Erian Watch US real rates

2013-08-26T16:05:26.000Z<p>By: Guest writer<p><b>Mohamed El-Erian, chief executive and co-chief investment officer at PIMCO, submits this guest post to FT</b> …

The China Doubters In The West Have Misread The Chinese Economic Vital Signs Again

Yes, China's economy has slowed. While the crisis-battered West could only dream of matching the 7.5% annual GDP growth rate that China's National Bureau of Statistics reported for the second quarter of 2013, it certainly does represent an appreciable slowdown from the 10% growth trend recorded …

Economics

Michael Pettis: Chinese GDP Has To Drop Even More

But in a new Financial Times column Michael Pettis, China expert and professor at Peking University, thinks GDP growth needs to slow much further.<p>He also argues that many China experts are wrong to assume that slower growth will cause social unrest.<p>Instead, he believes the number that everyone …

Economics

Research: Labor force participation rate expected to stay flat through 2015

I've written frequently about the participation rate (the percent of the civilian noninstitutional population in the labor force). A few posts: …

Research: The Labor Force Participation Rate Will Stay Flat Through 2015

CR Note: A significant portion of the decline in the unemployment rate from 10.0% in October 2009 to 7.6% in June 2013 was related to a decline in the participation rate from 65.0% in Oct 2009 to 63.5% in June 2013. If the participation rate had held steady, the unemployment rate would be 9.7% …

Demographics

CREDIT SUISSE: 'All The Main Drivers Of Chinese Growth Are Sharply Diminished'

The reality of China's economic slow down is becoming more well known in the wake of China's unexpectedly weak import and export figures.<p>Credit Suisse's Andrew Garthwaite included these bearish points in a presentation on Tuesday.

Credit Suisse