arimarjamaa

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The Future Is Bright!

For new readers: I was very bearish on the economy when I started this blog in 2005 - back then I wrote mostly about housing (see: LA Times article and more here for comments about the blog). I started looking for the sun in early 2009, and now I'm even more optimistic looking out over the next few …

China's Unprecedented Demographic Problem Takes Shape

Chinese society is on the verge of a structural transformation even more profound than the long and painful project of economic rebalancing, which …

U.S. Manufacturers Gain Ground

Narrower Trade Deficit on Factory Goods Is a Sign of a New Competitive Edge<p>After more than a decade of losing ground to China and other export powerhouses, U.S. manufacturers are finally showing signs of regaining their competitive edge.<p>The U.S. deficit on trade of manufactured goods in this year's …

Rising House Prices in China Spark Concern

Steady Increases Could Provoke Sharp Corrective Action by the Government to Realign Home Prices With Average Incomes<p>SHANGHAI—Fresh evidence of rapidly rising house prices underlined the role a resurgent property sector has played in supporting China's fragile growth, but also raised fears that a …

House Prices

ROSENBERG: Here's Why I Finally Gave Up On My 20-Year-Old Deflation Call

I think the people that write off the prospect of cost-push inflation are taking on a very myopic view. Inflation is a process, and it takes a long while to build. There is evidence that the consumer deleveraging cycle is largely over. Subprime auto credit is up 30% from a year ago. We are up to a …

China to ditch its one-child policy as ageing crisis looms

China's new leaders are close to abandoning the country's one-child policy, belatedly moving to avert an ageing crunch as the work force goes into sharp decline.<p>The official news agency Xinhua reported that the Family Planning Commission is studying proposals to lift the ban on a second child, if …

FED STUDY: We Conservatively Estimate That The Financial Crisis Cost Us Up To $14 Trillion

"The 2007-09 Financial crisis was associated with a huge loss of economic output and financial wealth, psychological consequences and skill atrophy from extended unemployment, an increase in government intervention, and other significant costs," they write.<p>And they do offer a nominal range of …

Britain is playing catch-up to the US manufacturing boom

America, like Britain, is not having an easy recovery.<p>Both nations remain in denial about the magnitude of the task ahead, and will soon have to start weaning themselves from years of extreme monetary methadone. But in one key respect the US has done far better: it is becoming the first Western …

China risks deflation trap as true GDP crumbles

China is sliding towards a deflation trap and may be in outright recession already if data are measured accurately, with serious knock-on risks for the global economy.<p>“It is too late to avoid a hard-landing,” said Patrick Chovanec from Silvercrest Asset Management and a former professor at …