Samuel Adams

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BIS flashes red alert for a banking crisis in China

China has failed to curb excesses in its credit system and faces mounting risks of a full-blown banking crisis, according to early warning indicators released by the world’s top financial watchdog.<p>A key gauge of credit vulnerability is now three times over the danger threshold and has continued to …

Has the global economy (finally) achieved escape velocity?

The latest Fulcrum nowcasts for global economic activity have identified a broad pick-up in growth in many major regions, both in the advanced …

The Losing Battle Against the World’s Most Powerful Currency

The Swiss franc’s persistent strength has posed challenges for export-dependent Switzerland<p>ZURICH—The undisputed king of currencies is Switzerland’s franc. And these days, no one is more disappointed by that fact than the Swiss.<p>Peter Kugler, a professor at the University of Basel, reckons the franc …

Economics

What if China was to rein in credit growth?

While China’s rapidly rising debt incites worries among many, China’s leadership seems so determined to meet overly ambitious GDP growth targets that …

Document 82 and slapping down China’s shadow loan market

2016-06-08T10:30:37.000Z<p>By: David Keohane<p>The whack-a-mole game that is China’s shadow loans market has just gotten some new rules. Or, as UBS put it, …

Chinese firms’ financial outlook worsens at record rate

The financial outlook for Chinese companies is deteriorating at a record rate as a large debt overhang accumulated since the 2008 financial crisis …

AEP: Saudi financial crisis 'could leave oil at $25' as contractors face being paid in IOUs

Saudi Arabia faces a vicious liquidity squeeze as capital continues to leak out the country, with a sharp contraction of the money supply and mounting stress in the banking system.<p>Three-month interbank offered rates in Riyadh have suddenly begun to spiral upwards, reaching the highest since the …

Oil

China Credit Squeeze, Defaults Are Signs Of Coming Crisis

Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, the world’s largest bank as measured by assets, and Agricultural Bank of China, No. 3 in the global rankings, are tapping the U.S. market by issuing renminbi-denominated certificates of deposit and bills.<p>ICBC and AgBank, as the state behemoths are known, can …

China

The Fed’s ‘China problem’

You don’t hear much these days about capital outflows from China. The renminbi seems well behaved, and China’s foreign exchange reserves have stayed …

Exclusive: Brazil's central bank closely monitoring nine banks - document | Reuters

BRASILIA (Reuters) - Brazil’s central bank has placed nine banks under “special surveillance” and is closely monitoring the liquidity and stability of their operations, according to an undated internal bank document reviewed by Reuters.<p>The central bank headquarters building is seen in Brasilia, …

Central Banks

China’s Economy Will Be More Competitive Than India’s For Many Years

Despite the attention many Fortune 500 CEOs have paid to India since the election of Prime Minister Narendra Modi in 2014, China’s growth will …

South Africa just lost its spot as Africa’s second largest economy

New data from the International Monetary Fund shows that Egypt is now Africa’s largest economy after Nigeria, pushing South Africa into third place, according to a report from KPMG on Wednesday (May 11).<p>South Africa was already struggling with its demotion from first place after Nigeria rebased its …

South Africa

China’s Financing Is Growing Pretty Circular, Deutsche Bank Says

“Lend, lend, lend!” commanded Chinese regulators.<p>“To whom, whom, whom?” asked Chinese banks.<p>“To yourselves, selves, selves!” suggested no one in …

Brazil is crying out for an IMF bailout

Brazil’s economy and politics have long been playing with fire. Now the rest of the world risks getting burnt by waiting for the crisis to be …

Why The Banking Industry Needs $600 Billion Worth Of M&A

by Doug Stotz, Arjun Saxena, and Sanchit Tiwari<p>The U.S. banking industry has largely sat out the impressive surge in mergers and acquisitions activity of the last few years. Total deal volume hit a record US$2.3 trillion in 2015 — up 64 percent over 2014. But banks accounted for just 3 percent of …

Profit

Even China's Party Mouthpiece Is Warning About Debt

China’s leading Communist Party mouthpiece acknowledged the risks of a build-up of debt that is worrying the world and said the nation needed to face …

China

Authoritative person authoritatively admits China can’t keep going this way

2016-05-09T05:57:50.000Z<p>By: David Keohane<p>From Nomura, with our emphasis:<p>According to today’s official People’s Daily [link here and Bloomberg writeup …

High and Dry: Climate Change, Water, and the Economy

Water scarcity, exacerbated by climate change, could cost some regions up to 6% of their GDP, spur migration, and spark conflict.<p>The combined effects …

Water

Finance Is No Longer Where the Jobs Are

Declines at banks and brokerages have brought the sector's growth to a standstill.<p>In the spring and summer of 2007, as the first tremors of the coming financial earthquake were making themselves felt, just under 8.4 million people were working in the U.S. financial sector. This April, according to …

Economics

Australia's big four banks finally feel the economic slowdown

But they are starting to feel the impact of a weaker economy, and the pain of overseas banks which have spent much of the year being dragged down.<p>The …

Warnings mount on world's corporate debt, China crisis

Corporate debt has reached extreme levels across much of the world and now far exceeds the pre-Lehman financial bubble by a host of measures, the global banking watchdog has warned in a deeply-disturbing report.<p>“As the credit cycle ages, following years of record-setting bond issuance, there are …

Economics

President of Philippine bank at center of $81 million heist quits | Reuters

MANILA (Reuters) - The Philippines’ Rizal Commercial Banking Corp said it has accepted the resignation of its president, Lorenzo Tan, even as it cleared the official of any wrongdoing in connection with a $81 million money laundering scandal.<p>Lorenzo Tan, president and chief executive officer of the …

Federal Reserve