Andy Gaur

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Here's what the yield curve is signaling

Key points<p>The U.S. Treasury yield curve, which flattened for much of 2017, when spreads between long and short maturities recently narrowed to decade lows, has begun to steepen.<br>• Investors historically have viewed the shape of the yield curve as a signal of future growth. We believe the yield curve …

Economics

How the Swamp Drained Trump

A year after arriving in Washington promising to hand power back to the people, the president has instead given the city’s insiders precisely what they wanted.<p>On a drizzly January afternoon one year ago, a newly sworn in President Donald J. Trump stood on the steps of the United States Capitol, …

Donald Trump

Accept it, your children may grow up to be renters

Get over your hang-ups about renting versus owning a home.<p>The latest census data suggest the home ownership rate in this country may have already peaked, and that means more renting ahead. The idea of peak oil has fizzled, but peak housing is a theory we can build on.<p>Peak oil referred to a point …

Housing

Bank of Canada caution on rates a mistake as debt swells, Dodge warns

One of Governor Stephen Poloz’s predecessors says the Bank of Canada’s current approach to increasing interest rates is too cautious.<p>David Dodge, who …

Business (Canada)

How To Profit Off Current Stock Valuations

How Buffett determines whether the stock market is expensive.<p>How to use interest rates in your valuation.<p>Is AAPL expensive relative to the current …

What ails the Indian economy?

<b>India's economy grew at its slowest pace for three years in the April-to-June quarter and growth has declined for six quarters in a row. Economic analyst Vivek Kaul explains why one of the world's fastest growing economies is sputtering to a halt.</b><p>On Monday, Prime Minister Narendra Modi revived …

India

Does Government Spending Create More Economic Growth?

<i>By Frank Shostak</i><p>After the 2007-2009 global financial crisis, fears of ballooning public debt and worries about the drag on economic growth pushed …

Royal Bank of Canada 2017 Q3 - Results - Earnings Call Slides

The following slide deck was published by Royal Bank of Canada in conjunction with their 2017 Q3 earnings call.<p>140<p>Click to enlarge

Business (Canada)

U.S. Stocks Back In 1929-Style Bubble

<b>There have been three major bubbles in US stock market history. The biggest ran between 1997 and 2001, caused by a speculative mania centred on</b> …

Stock Markets

Canada’s economy is dependent on you buying and selling real estate

The transactional costs of buying and selling homes makes up almost 2 percent of Canada’s economy, according to this very insightful analysis of Canada’s real estate market by the CBC.<p>That’s a pretty stunning figure, more so when you take into account that agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting …

Canadian Real Estate

The Immigration Effect

There’s a way for President Trump to boost the economy by 4 percent, but he probably won’t like it.

Economics

A Study of 16 Countries Shows That the Most Productive Firms (and Their Employees) Are Pulling Away from Everyone Else

The corporate landscape has become increasingly unequal, with the most productive firms thriving and the least productive ones failing to keep up. This matters not just for economic growth but also for inequality: Our research shows that as they grow apart in productivity, firms are also becoming …

Economics
Stock Markets

Facebook wants to become the new mobile storefront, unveils new ad tools for brands and retailers

The company believes it can play a unique role in the shopping world-helping people both discover new products and make decisions when they're ready to buy.<p>"In a sense, we are becoming something like the new storefront," Martin Barthel, Facebook's global head of retail and ecommerce strategy, told …

eCommerce

Is China on the verge of a banking crisis?

A variety of indicators suggest that China has come perilously close to a banking crisis. So far, the government has managed to keep things in check. …

Loans

Toronto Home Prices Just Jumped Another 33%

Toronto’s housing market showed no signs of cooling last month, with the average sale price soaring the most in almost three decades as the cost of a …

Canadian Real Estate

Trump’s budget assumes 3 percent annual growth. Why that’s extremely unlikely, explained.

How fast will the economy grow over the next 10 years? The question is not purely academic. For those of us who think about the trade-offs inherent in spending and tax policies, this is a question with great significance. With a faster growth rate the budget deficit would be smaller — taking …

Economics

Opinion: Why Trump will have to trash the dollar to create jobs

If Donald Trump really wants to Make America Great Again, he’s going to have to Make the Dollar Weak Again first.<p>So argued hedge fund manager Mathew …

Donald Trump

America’s household debt binge *was* about income inequality

2017-03-01T09:21:02.000Z<p>Since 2006, a yawning gap has opened up between the average level of real household spending and the remarkably stable …

Economics

Why interest rates won’t likely rise much

This week I will be addressing the Manning Centre Conference in Ottawa on the topic of debt, demographics and the long-term implications for Canada. Having followed global financial markets for the past three decades, I've seen several bulls and bears. The one thing that has never changed in 30 …

Interest Rates

Reevely: A decline in housing prices could be bad news for Wynne

The Ontario government relies so heavily on Toronto’s roiling housing market for revenue that even a small decline in prices could blow a …

Canadian Real Estate

Trump’s Most Chilling Economic Lie

A so-called trade war with China would be an absolute disaster for the United States and its citizens.<p><b>Donald Trump</b> has threatened to upend the post-World War II geopolitical order. What he finds most vexing about that order is the rise of China. Today, China is the largest trading economy in the …

Donald Trump

China's economy is at the mercy of a force completely beyond its control

The course of this path could mean strange and terrible things are in store for economies around the world. A slower, weaker Chinese economy — and the resulting weakness of the yuan — will create competition for other developing-market exporters in a race to the bottom.<p>This is a moment many China …

China

Canadian real estate market outlook 2017

Real Estate Outlook Intro GTA Market Outlook 2017 B.C. Market Outlook 2017 Why the market will slow down How accurate was the 2016 outlook?<p>For …

Canadian Real Estate

Following the Money: 5 of the Best Books on Economics

A good starting point for learning about the subject is <i>Economics: A Very Short Introduction</i>, by Partha Dasgupta. Most introductory textbooks begin with the highly stylized world of rational individuals and profit-seeking firms trading goods and labor in abstract markets. Instead, Dasgupta starts …

Mortgage rules explained, from credit scores to income requirements

New programs and updated regulations are changing the mortgage game<p>Following the 2008 financial crisis, mortgage lending ground to a halt for all but the most perfect of borrowers, and largely stayed that way until recently. Two years ago, lenders began to ease mortgage standards, and today, it’s …

Housing